The real unemployment claims picture

[bart]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports both initial unemployment claims and continuing claims on a weekly basis, and it looks like this since 2000.


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/unemployment_claims.png


As can be seen, it appears that continuing claims (blue line) have peaked and are headed back down. But the devil is in the details.

The normal or official numbers do not include continuing claims for extended benefits, federal employees, recently discharged veterans etc... and the real whopper - the program called "Emergency Unemployment Compensation" or EUC whose purpose is to extend benefits to people still out of work after 26 weeks.


Here's what continuing claims looks like when they are all included. Instead of around 6.8 million, the real number is around 10 million (blue line)... and it has not peaked.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/unemployment_claims_all.png



On a side note, I had most of the data loaded but hadn't yet gotten to the last few steps and creating the chart and publishing it... and Chris Puplava beat me to it.
*mumble, mumble*... ;)

[zoog]

Thanks bart.

I keep wondering what it's going to be like when millions of people have passed the initial unemployment period, the "emergency" extensions, and everything... yet still cannot find work.

I suppose the federal government will just keep adding on more unemployment extensions.

[bart]

That's pretty much the way I see it too, just keep extending the unemployment period. I think its up to a maximum total possible benefits period of 79 weeks now.


And by the way, that new chart also answers the question on the chart based on workforce size with initial claims well above continuing claims - the current official measure is incomplete and misleading.

Here's the workforce size based chart:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/unemp_claims_percent_workforce.png

[metalman]

That's pretty much the way I see it too, just keep extending the unemployment period. I think its up to a maximum total possible benefits period of 79 weeks now.


And by the way, that new chart also answers the question on the chart based on workforce size with initial claims well above continuing claims - the current official measure is incomplete and misleading.

Here's the workforce size based chart:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/unemp_claims_percent_workforce.png

but still not as bad as the 1980s recession.

ever compare the political shit sandwich forecast from jan. 2009... (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7289)


http://www.itulip.com/forums/../images/durationunemploy2010.gif
Projected rise in Median Duration of Unemployment by June 2009: 13 weeks from 10.5 weeks currently

...to today?

http://imgur.com/dXpdK.gif

ha ha! i was right!!! (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69878#poststop) itulip was waaaaay off. forecast 13 wks by mid 2009.

friggin' optimists!!!

[bart]

...
ha ha! i was right!!! (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=69878#poststop) itulip was waaaaay off. forecast 13 wks by mid 2009.

friggin' optimists!!!


:D


I think it's safe to say that you're having fun yet.