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View Full Version : Global Market Crash: Phase I



FRED
02-27-07, 10:14 PM
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Ann
02-27-07, 11:04 PM
Nikkei down 588 (3.25%)
Hang Seng down 648 (3.22%)

How far down will US markets open tomorrow?

Tet
02-27-07, 11:29 PM
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<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/_-rke3JXqb4" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="350"></embed></OBJECT></P>Strange they don't mention this little beauty on a day like today, up only 8.22% RYVNX, RYDEX DYNAMIC FDS INVERSE OTC short fund.

DemonD
02-27-07, 11:36 PM
Shanghai market up .25%
to be fair, india down 3.5% (s&p cnx)

I'll be a nickel the DJIA does not close below 12000. Takers?

Jim Nickerson
02-27-07, 11:43 PM
Nikkei down 588 (3.25%)
Hang Seng down 648 (3.22%)

How far down will US markets open tomorrow?

I don't know.

Paul Desmond's 90% volume and points down (down vol/(up vol + down vol; and same calculation for points) are said to represent selling panics, and conversely 90% volume and points up are said to represent panic buying. I believe he found that 90% down days don't indicate anything specific about subsequent market action, though when one occurs it may be a warning that more will follow. I believe he also says that such panic selling may be followed by a good rebound.

According to the numbers I calculate using Yahoo NYSE components data, today the volume was down 99.20% and the points were down 99.75%. Those are clearly the most down-numbers which I have in my data.

In one looks at the 10 DMA of NYSE ADV/DEC issues, this is not even negative yet at 1.06. The lowest reading I have is 0.46 from 9/21/01. The Nasdaq numbers are similar.

McClellan oscillator for NYSE was -175, which in uptrending markets that would be a decent low perhaps. The lowest low I have recorded was -365 again on 9/21/01. The Nasdaq Mc. Oscillator is -132, and the lowest low I have waws -365 on 9/21/01.

Ann
02-28-07, 12:26 AM
Shanghai market up .25%
to be fair, india down 3.5% (s&p cnx)

I'll be a nickel the DJIA does not close below 12000. Takers?

Huh? Captured this 3 minutes ago...

http://i12.tinypic.com/4dffzgg.jpg

Ann
02-28-07, 12:43 AM
No, here's the stock market tomorrow...

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Ann
02-28-07, 01:12 AM
Hey, you put my vid on the main page. How about this... when the markets crash, the bears dance!

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DemonD
03-01-07, 02:22 AM
and US DJIA up .43%

sorry about htat other index, it was an index from S&P not the bombay stock exchange which was down yesterday.

Looking at international markets right now China, Seoul, and Taiwan down 2-4% with other pan-asian markets hovering within .5% of flat.

I'm wondering if this is happening due to an unwinding of the yen-carry? Is that the "exogenous event"? The rise of the yen based on BOJ short term interest rates?

grapejelly
03-01-07, 09:57 AM
today isn't starting out great either :)

The Yen is up vs. US$ by almost 1.5%

Yes, it's all about the Yen rally.

Finster
03-01-07, 02:00 PM
[video]

Thanks very much for posting this!

I was watching the action on Bloomberg Tuesday, and when the DJIA was down some 2XX points, the phone rang. I went to the other room to pick it up and it was my cousin calling to tell me it was down 500. Huh? I didn't believe him, since I'd just seen the two handle on the screen seconds earlier. I pulled up my online broker's page, though, and there it was. By the time I ran back to the TV, it was showing on Bloomberg, too (which has about a one minute delay on the main averages).

There must've been some kind of record set there for the all-time highest points-per-second market velocity!

DemonD
03-02-07, 12:17 AM
Shanghai recovering today.

Here is a completely unscientific prediction:

Short-term this little liquidity action is acting as a shakeout/correction. With all the money being created, it has to go somewhere, and with RE being dead, but the credit floodgates still open, back into equities seems to be as good as any place.

I base this on the following beliefs:

1. That the US indices are at full value - not undervalued nor overinflated.
2. The evidence from the itulip community shows that there is a large amount of money creation going on out there... that money has to be put out into the world somewhere
3. That somewhere is no longer Real Estate, nor the securities that back it (due to the RE hyperinflation and now bear market).
4. Gold? Commodities? Good to protect wealth and hedge against falling fiat currencies, but no commodity has ever paid a dividend or monetary yield.
5. So where does the money go? Back into equities.


Oh yeah and also no evidence of recession either in the US or world at this point. Economies are still growing. Growth may be fueled by excess credit, but growing it is.

BTW this prediction I'm giving for the next 2 months. I have firmly tilted towards the bearish, not because of the stock drop, but because I now believe that the RE crash is going to drag the economy down. Still holding on to my equities with an expected short-term recovery.

Finster
03-04-07, 01:07 PM
Shanghai recovering today.

Here is a completely unscientific prediction:

Short-term this little liquidity action is acting as a shakeout/correction. With all the money being created, it has to go somewhere, and with RE being dead, but the credit floodgates still open, back into equities seems to be as good as any place.

Some of that money has been going back into where it came from in the first place - thin air. Remember the CBs create money by lending it into existence. When the loans are repaid, they’re repaid into non-existence.

This is in large part what’s going on with the unwinding of the yen carry. Not to mention the USD "carry" that was carried out by Joe and Jane Q Public shorting dollars against houses, and the LBO operators shorting dollars against corporate capital.


I base this on the following beliefs:

1. That the US indices are at full value - not undervalued nor overinflated.

Agreed, DD. But it is very common for even undervalued assets to get even more undervalued. This is especially so when they are coming from a state of having been overvalued, as the US stock market was (incredibly so) back in 1996-2000.


4. Gold? Commodities? Good to protect wealth and hedge against falling fiat currencies, but no commodity has ever paid a dividend or monetary yield.

Not per se, but if the currency is falling against commodities faster than the rate of interest being paid on currency, you’re still better off in commodities. Moreover, you can get yield, too, by owning fully collateralized futures. Some ETFs, DBC for example, do just this.


Oh yeah and also no evidence of recession either in the US or world at this point.

The strongest evidence yet just materialized last week. The stock market does not wait for official reports of a recession, or even clear evidence of one. First the stock market goes down, then the rest of the pieces start to fall into place.

WDCRob
03-05-07, 07:21 AM
Looks like the Yen jumped again today, and the markets tanked again. At some point does this become self-reinforcing as people still holding Yen get scared?