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  • who do you read? who do you trust?

    i'm curious to know where the members of this board turn for information and analysis. and what you value about each source. i think this would tell us something about each other, and spelling it out might tell us something about ourselves. also, i might pick up an idea or two.

    my own information sources/readings/subscriptions:

    richard russell's dow theory letters- 5 or 6 a week. i've been subscribing for several years. i value his analysis especially because he is not an idealogue or a stopped clock. he has for some time been negative or wary about the stock market, although he did recommend long side trades in 2002 and 2003, making clear they were trades only, as he has believed we are in a secular bear market since late 1999. he has also been investing in gold since at least 2001 iirc, but has not historically been a perennial goldbug.

    john hussman- i read his free weekly column at hussmanfunds.com. for a while in the 90's i subscribed to the newsletter he was writing then, and even then i thought he was one of the smartest guys and clearest thinkers writing about the market. back then he had not developed his "market climate" concept, so he just was continually flabbergasted by the crazy valuations. i have had 30% of my assets in his strategic growth since shortly after its inception. it is the only exposure i will have to the general stock market, because i trust his ability to hedge risk. he has been 100% hedged almost all the time in the last 2-3 years. [btw, he has another web site, http://www.hussmanfitness.org/ which he did several years ago as a hobby and a public service: nutrition, fitness, exercise, etc, synthesized by a very bright guy who has nothing to sell you. he's also the only writer i know who, on rare occasions, will write about buddhist principles of investing.]

    bill fleckenstein's market rap- 5 a week. i've been reading fleck for years, since he was posting on silicon investor. he runs a shorts only hedge fund, he's kinda bearish but a clear thinker who keeps me in touch with the daily rhythms of the market. and sometimes he's very funny.

    fred hickey's tech newsletter- he's been quite bearish on the sector for some time.

    contraryinvestor.com - 2 a week. i've subscribed for years now. they do a free monthly if you want to get a feel. good background, mostly expressed in graphs, give a feel for things like mutual fund sector weightings, money flows, information buried in the flow of funds reports, etc. e.g. some time ago they highlighted the middle-eastern sourced money flows being directed through london and the caribbean, and the changes implied compared to the prior flows originating in asia.

    credit bubble bulletin weekly [free] by doug noland at prudentbear.com- i've read this for many years. i used to read every word, and it really helped educate me, especially in thinking about systemic risks. e.g years ago noland was writing about hyman minsky's work on financial markets and risk, the progression from stable to speculative to ponzi finance and the way that stability leads to increased risk taking which leads to increased instability. these are ideas that i've been seeing only lately in other places. now i just read his analytical piece at the end of each weeks column.

    mark faber- monthly. i've been subscribing to gloom, boom and doom for a few years. i made enough money on a pair of argentinian real estate stocks he recommended several years back for me to feel that he's covered the subscription costs for many years to come. however, sometimes i wonder whether i should bother continuing to subscribe, as he has pieces available for free around the web, and his general level analysis doesn't add to what i've got from elsewhere. i guess i'm waiting for the next tidbit like those argentine stocks.

    gave-kal - i don't subscribe [it's very, very expensive] but i read whatever i can get my hands on. i recommend their book "our brave new world." it is sunnily bullish, and i fundamentally disagree with their conclusions, but their arguments are very stimulating and thought provoking.

    pimco - free monthly columns by bill gross and by paul mcculley. gross' columns in particular can be quite incisive.

    barrons - whatever looks interesting that week.

    john mauldin's [free] weekly column at 2000wave.com. mauldin is another clear thinker. his "muddle through" scenario is sunnier than the predictions of most of the folks i read, but i like his thinking. he also does wide ranging analytical pieces that are always worth a look, and his weekly [also free] "outside the box" by various "guest" authors are sometimes quite interesting.

    ecri- i subscribe to their "lite" package which essentially gives me a look at their weekly leading index and its growth rate, as well as their future inflation guage. i believe they have the best record around in economic forecasting, and i use this to keep my feet on the ground and not get carried away by all the bearish folks i read. i can read about gloom and doom, but every week i look at the ecri numbers and see their prediction of clear sailing. or i used to, the last few weeks the leading index has been deteriorating but they have made no prediction of recession. yet.

    itulip- just came upon the site a few months ago, although i was also aware of it, and read it a few times, during its previous incarnation.

    fullermoney.com - i sometimes look at the free daily posting

    forbes.com- i check in periodically to see if there's anything new by james grant or gary shilling. they're the only guys i read there. if you check periodically you can read their columns for free.

    those are the ones that come to mind, anyway.

  • #2
    and..

    jeremy granham's quarterly letter at gmo.com

    Comment


    • #3
      great list. well done.

      two to add:

      brad setser, he is up on IMF capital flows which he focuses on. he gets stuck by all this money coming in and out of the UK which obfuscates and dims his analysis but he tries to fill in the gaps. haven't seen anyone else that attacks this with the same amount of gusto.

      just picked up Barry Ritholtz at bigpicture, been solid stuff so far.

      i've got calculated risk and some housing bubble blogs on my list, because I believe the housing market leads the economy. i like to read on the ground local market news to get a better idea of what real estate is doing. zillow.com
      is good for that as well.

      i tend to focus on rss feeds simply because that's how I'm set up for organisation purposes. be nice if goss and roach had blogs. ;)

      Comment


      • #4
        i really trust no one. i've dropped people that i've followed for years simply because they weren't making sense lately. i was ignoring buffet for awhile until he bought iscar.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by blazespinnaker
          great list. well done.

          two to add:

          brad setser, he is up on IMF capital flows which he focuses on. he gets stuck by all this money coming in and out of the UK which obfuscates and dims his analysis but he tries to fill in the gaps. haven't seen anyone else that attacks this with the same amount of gusto. ;)
          those uk flows are what was being analyzed at contraryinvestor

          Comment


          • #6
            yeah, i just put them on my reading list. really good stuff. i am a big fan of capital flows, because I believe that this has a big impact on market climate.

            Comment


            • #7
              Nice list jK,

              First I will list ones that I have subscribed to in the past but discontinued.

              1) Prechter - I learned a lot from EWT but he got off track after the 1987 crash and has never gotten back on. Still his research was fantastic.. just erroneous conclusions.

              2) Richard Russell - again, I learned a lot and especially about market pyschology, good investing habits, etc.. his msg is somewhat tedious at this point.

              ========
              The sources I currently like are

              1) Jim Dines letter for his uranium picks
              2) Puplava for developing a theme and supporting that theme (hyperinflationary depression)
              3) iTulip (I'm here aren't I)
              4) Jim Stack has good research but only looks at stocks. I'm looking at survivial more than just stock picking at this point in the game!! Still I look at his letter.
              5) Daily Reckoning board, SafeHaven.Com board
              6) Patrick.Net and HouseBubble.Com for the housing bubble
              7) I subscribe to the Soverign Individual from Bonner's group...good for int'l investment ideas, offshore banking, legal tips, privacy etc.
              8) I read many international newspapers online like ChinaDaily to see what propoganda is like in their part of the world...

              I'm sure I'll think of more but that's it for now...
              CM

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                Originally posted by jk
                i'm curious to know where the members of this board turn for information and analysis. and what you value about each source. i think this would tell us something about each other, and spelling it out might tell us something about ourselves. also, i might pick up an idea or two.

                my own information sources/readings/subscriptions:

                richard russell's dow theory letters- 5 or 6 a week. i've been subscribing for several years. i value his analysis especially because he is not an idealogue or a stopped clock. he has for some time been negative or wary about the stock market, although he did recommend long side trades in 2002 and 2003, making clear they were trades only, as he has believed we are in a secular bear market since late 1999. he has also been investing in gold since at least 2001 iirc, but has not historically been a perennial goldbug.

                john hussman- i read his free weekly column at hussmanfunds.com. for a while in the 90's i subscribed to the newsletter he was writing then, and even then i thought he was one of the smartest guys and clearest thinkers writing about the market. back then he had not developed his "market climate" concept, so he just was continually flabbergasted by the crazy valuations. i have had 30% of my assets in his strategic growth since shortly after its inception. it is the only exposure i will have to the general stock market, because i trust his ability to hedge risk. he has been 100% hedged almost all the time in the last 2-3 years. [btw, he has another web site, http://www.hussmanfitness.org/ which he did several years ago as a hobby and a public service: nutrition, fitness, exercise, etc, synthesized by a very bright guy who has nothing to sell you. he's also the only writer i know who, on rare occasions, will write about buddhist principles of investing.]

                bill fleckenstein's market rap- 5 a week. i've been reading fleck for years, since he was posting on silicon investor. he runs a shorts only hedge fund, he's kinda bearish but a clear thinker who keeps me in touch with the daily rhythms of the market. and sometimes he's very funny.

                fred hickey's tech newsletter- he's been quite bearish on the sector for some time.

                contraryinvestor.com - 2 a week. i've subscribed for years now. they do a free monthly if you want to get a feel. good background, mostly expressed in graphs, give a feel for things like mutual fund sector weightings, money flows, information buried in the flow of funds reports, etc. e.g. some time ago they highlighted the middle-eastern sourced money flows being directed through london and the caribbean, and the changes implied compared to the prior flows originating in asia.

                credit bubble bulletin weekly [free] by doug noland at prudentbear.com- i've read this for many years. i used to read every word, and it really helped educate me, especially in thinking about systemic risks. e.g years ago noland was writing about hyman minsky's work on financial markets and risk, the progression from stable to speculative to ponzi finance and the way that stability leads to increased risk taking which leads to increased instability. these are ideas that i've been seeing only lately in other places. now i just read his analytical piece at the end of each weeks column.

                mark faber- monthly. i've been subscribing to gloom, boom and doom for a few years. i made enough money on a pair of argentinian real estate stocks he recommended several years back for me to feel that he's covered the subscription costs for many years to come. however, sometimes i wonder whether i should bother continuing to subscribe, as he has pieces available for free around the web, and his general level analysis doesn't add to what i've got from elsewhere. i guess i'm waiting for the next tidbit like those argentine stocks.

                gave-kal - i don't subscribe [it's very, very expensive] but i read whatever i can get my hands on. i recommend their book "our brave new world." it is sunnily bullish, and i fundamentally disagree with their conclusions, but their arguments are very stimulating and thought provoking.

                pimco - free monthly columns by bill gross and by paul mcculley. gross' columns in particular can be quite incisive.

                barrons - whatever looks interesting that week.

                john mauldin's [free] weekly column at 2000wave.com. mauldin is another clear thinker. his "muddle through" scenario is sunnier than the predictions of most of the folks i read, but i like his thinking. he also does wide ranging analytical pieces that are always worth a look, and his weekly [also free] "outside the box" by various "guest" authors are sometimes quite interesting.

                ecri- i subscribe to their "lite" package which essentially gives me a look at their weekly leading index and its growth rate, as well as their future inflation guage. i believe they have the best record around in economic forecasting, and i use this to keep my feet on the ground and not get carried away by all the bearish folks i read. i can read about gloom and doom, but every week i look at the ecri numbers and see their prediction of clear sailing. or i used to, the last few weeks the leading index has been deteriorating but they have made no prediction of recession. yet.

                itulip- just came upon the site a few months ago, although i was also aware of it, and read it a few times, during its previous incarnation.

                fullermoney.com - i sometimes look at the free daily posting

                forbes.com- i check in periodically to see if there's anything new by james grant or gary shilling. they're the only guys i read there. if you check periodically you can read their columns for free.

                those are the ones that come to mind, anyway.
                JK, I've been considering Marc Faber, but how does one trade Argentine real estate stocks? Or (from a recent Bloomberg article http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Mvo&refer=asia) how would one invest in a couple of Thai stocks (Thai Reinsurance Pcl and Thai Union Frozen Products Pcl) which seem to be listed only on the Bangkok exchange?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                  Originally posted by zmas28
                  JK, I've been considering Marc Faber, but how does one trade Argentine real estate stocks? Or (from a recent Bloomberg article http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Mvo&refer=asia) how would one invest in a couple of Thai stocks (Thai Reinsurance Pcl and Thai Union Frozen Products Pcl) which seem to be listed only on the Bangkok exchange?
                  the argentine stocks he recommended a few years ago [i'm out of them now] are actually traded on the ny exchange. they are cresy and irs.

                  the thai stocks are beyond me. to trade his recommendations in thailand, malaysia, etc you'd need a broker with presence on these exchanges. interactive brokers gets you japan and a bunch of european and no. american exchanges, but not those smaller asian exchanges.

                  i'm kind of curious whether anyone on the board knows of a broker with such broad presence that will work with individuals who don't have multimillion dollar accounts. i'm going to start a thread on brokers.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                    Originally posted by jk
                    the argentine stocks he recommended a few years ago [i'm out of them now] are actually traded on the ny exchange. they are cresy and irs.
                    FWIW, I've owned CRESY for years. Not a huge position, as I'm wary of currency and political risks, but the assets seem very attractive and the management good. Not necessarily a widows and orphans kind of stock, especially in large amounts, but anyone interested in agricultural real estate ought look into it.
                    Finster
                    ...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                      Originally posted by jk
                      i'm curious to know where the members of this board turn for information and analysis. and what you value about each source. i think this would tell us something about each other, and spelling it out might tell us something about ourselves. also, i might pick up an idea or two.
                      ...

                      Besides many of the ones listed above (with duplications), I also read on a varying basis:

                      Jim Sinclair - http://www.jsmineset.com/
                      Russ Winter - http://www.xanga.com/russwinter
                      Gary Dorsch - http://www.sirchartsalot.com/
                      BCA - http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/
                      FA - http://www.foreignaffairs.org/
                      Thomas DeChastelain - http://www.quasimodos.com/cgi-bin/index.cgi
                      Jerry Pournelle - http://www.jerrypournelle.com/view/currentview.html

                      and many more.
                      http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                        :eek: :confused: :confused:

                        I "trust" no one......not even Funster or El Bartos....:rolleyes:

                        I prefer Reuters in UK...

                        Also UBS Bank has good bits on non-USA sites

                        Deutsches Wella and BBC

                        Dr. Kurt the German....

                        LA Times for local stuff in SoCal

                        Benny Hinn for instant cures.......

                        Bill Bonner for absurd publications

                        Dic Grasso for stock tips......

                        MEL GIBSON for religion and politics.....


                        Might I recommend,,,,if one must trust in someone,,,,, I recommend GOD

                        All others must pay cash !

                        :cool:
                        and TUTs
                        LORD Haw Haw

                        Informant to:
                        221B Baker Street
                        Westminister, LONDON U.K.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                          Originally posted by jk View Post
                          i'm curious to know where the members of this board turn for information and analysis. and what you value about each source. i think this would tell us something about each other, and spelling it out might tell us something about ourselves. also, i might pick up an idea or two.

                          my own information sources/readings/subscriptions:

                          richard russell's dow theory letters- 5 or 6 a week. i've been subscribing for several years. i value his analysis especially because he is not an idealogue or a stopped clock. he has for some time been negative or wary about the stock market, although he did recommend long side trades in 2002 and 2003, making clear they were trades only, as he has believed we are in a secular bear market since late 1999. he has also been investing in gold since at least 2001 iirc, but has not historically been a perennial goldbug.

                          john hussman- i read his free weekly column at hussmanfunds.com. for a while in the 90's i subscribed to the newsletter he was writing then, and even then i thought he was one of the smartest guys and clearest thinkers writing about the market. back then he had not developed his "market climate" concept, so he just was continually flabbergasted by the crazy valuations. i have had 30% of my assets in his strategic growth since shortly after its inception. it is the only exposure i will have to the general stock market, because i trust his ability to hedge risk. he has been 100% hedged almost all the time in the last 2-3 years. [btw, he has another web site, http://www.hussmanfitness.org/ which he did several years ago as a hobby and a public service: nutrition, fitness, exercise, etc, synthesized by a very bright guy who has nothing to sell you. he's also the only writer i know who, on rare occasions, will write about buddhist principles of investing.]

                          bill fleckenstein's market rap- 5 a week. i've been reading fleck for years, since he was posting on silicon investor. he runs a shorts only hedge fund, he's kinda bearish but a clear thinker who keeps me in touch with the daily rhythms of the market. and sometimes he's very funny.

                          fred hickey's tech newsletter- he's been quite bearish on the sector for some time.

                          contraryinvestor.com - 2 a week. i've subscribed for years now. they do a free monthly if you want to get a feel. good background, mostly expressed in graphs, give a feel for things like mutual fund sector weightings, money flows, information buried in the flow of funds reports, etc. e.g. some time ago they highlighted the middle-eastern sourced money flows being directed through london and the caribbean, and the changes implied compared to the prior flows originating in asia.

                          credit bubble bulletin weekly [free] by doug noland at prudentbear.com- i've read this for many years. i used to read every word, and it really helped educate me, especially in thinking about systemic risks. e.g years ago noland was writing about hyman minsky's work on financial markets and risk, the progression from stable to speculative to ponzi finance and the way that stability leads to increased risk taking which leads to increased instability. these are ideas that i've been seeing only lately in other places. now i just read his analytical piece at the end of each weeks column.

                          mark faber- monthly. i've been subscribing to gloom, boom and doom for a few years. i made enough money on a pair of argentinian real estate stocks he recommended several years back for me to feel that he's covered the subscription costs for many years to come. however, sometimes i wonder whether i should bother continuing to subscribe, as he has pieces available for free around the web, and his general level analysis doesn't add to what i've got from elsewhere. i guess i'm waiting for the next tidbit like those argentine stocks.

                          gave-kal - i don't subscribe [it's very, very expensive] but i read whatever i can get my hands on. i recommend their book "our brave new world." it is sunnily bullish, and i fundamentally disagree with their conclusions, but their arguments are very stimulating and thought provoking.

                          pimco - free monthly columns by bill gross and by paul mcculley. gross' columns in particular can be quite incisive.

                          barrons - whatever looks interesting that week.

                          john mauldin's [free] weekly column at 2000wave.com. mauldin is another clear thinker. his "muddle through" scenario is sunnier than the predictions of most of the folks i read, but i like his thinking. he also does wide ranging analytical pieces that are always worth a look, and his weekly [also free] "outside the box" by various "guest" authors are sometimes quite interesting.

                          ecri- i subscribe to their "lite" package which essentially gives me a look at their weekly leading index and its growth rate, as well as their future inflation guage. i believe they have the best record around in economic forecasting, and i use this to keep my feet on the ground and not get carried away by all the bearish folks i read. i can read about gloom and doom, but every week i look at the ecri numbers and see their prediction of clear sailing. or i used to, the last few weeks the leading index has been deteriorating but they have made no prediction of recession. yet.

                          itulip- just came upon the site a few months ago, although i was also aware of it, and read it a few times, during its previous incarnation.

                          fullermoney.com - i sometimes look at the free daily posting

                          forbes.com- i check in periodically to see if there's anything new by james grant or gary shilling. they're the only guys i read there. if you check periodically you can read their columns for free.

                          those are the ones that come to mind, anyway.
                          jk,

                          rooting around in the archives, came across this. great list you offered up soon after you arrived here... post #99!

                          looking back, any adds/subtracts from your reading list since you posted this 2 yrs ago? who's done the best? how'd you rate each of them? did you drop rose colored glasses gav kal? thanks!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                            Originally posted by Charles Mackay View Post
                            Nice list jK,

                            First I will list ones that I have subscribed to in the past but discontinued.

                            1) Prechter - I learned a lot from EWT but he got off track after the 1987 crash and has never gotten back on. Still his research was fantastic.. just erroneous conclusions.

                            2) Richard Russell - again, I learned a lot and especially about market pyschology, good investing habits, etc.. his msg is somewhat tedious at this point.

                            ========
                            The sources I currently like are

                            1) Jim Dines letter for his uranium picks
                            2) Puplava for developing a theme and supporting that theme (hyperinflationary depression)
                            3) iTulip (I'm here aren't I)
                            4) Jim Stack has good research but only looks at stocks. I'm looking at survivial more than just stock picking at this point in the game!! Still I look at his letter.
                            5) Daily Reckoning board, SafeHaven.Com board
                            6) Patrick.Net and HouseBubble.Com for the housing bubble
                            7) I subscribe to the Soverign Individual from Bonner's group...good for int'l investment ideas, offshore banking, legal tips, privacy etc.
                            8) I read many international newspapers online like ChinaDaily to see what propoganda is like in their part of the world...

                            I'm sure I'll think of more but that's it for now...
                            CM
                            Wow i have been thinking that about Richard Russell for the last 6 months i have subscribed! His message has also seemed a little too based on market action and less on fundamentals. He is somewhat of a flip flopper, which is annoying because fundamentals don't change as quickly as his opinion.
                            To add a few from my list
                            Ted Butler- silver bull (silverseek.com)
                            Israel Friedman- silver bull
                            Bill Murphy- Gata (gata.org)

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: who do you read? who do you trust?

                              I'm Also a TLD'r (The Dines Letter)

                              Itulip
                              Shadowstats

                              Safehaven
                              Financial Sense
                              Kitco

                              The last three give a great smattering of stuff and places to look for further information along with LOTS of different perspectives. Mostly because of all the different authors (most of which intersect many of the sources already mentioned). They are a great resource as long as you can think for yourself and use them to come up with your own investment thesis.

                              Comment

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