Tech Stock Speculation
Then and Now
Posted January
1999
The Prediction in 1999 | Nutty Valuations Comparison |The Watch List | 20/20 Hindsight
Tech Stock Speculation
Then and Now
Posted January
1999
The Prediction -- January 1999Thirty years ago, these technology stocks were the darlings of Wall Street. They crashed by 1970. Below, a look at the stocks' peak-to-trough declines and their price-to-earnings ratios at the peaks.
Hot Tech Stocks of 1968
| Company | 1968 High | 1970 Low | % drop | P/E at High |
| Fairchild Camera | $102.00 | $18.00 | -82% | 443 |
| Teledyne | 72.00 | 13.00 | -82 | 42 |
| Control Data | 163.00 | 28.00 | -83 | 54 |
| Mohawk Data | 111.00 | 18.00 | -84 | 285 |
| Electronic Data | 162.00 | 24.00 | -85 | 352 |
| Optical Scanning | 146.00 | 16.00 | -89 | 200 |
| Itek | 172.00 | 17.00 | -90 | 71 |
| University Computing | 186.00 | 13.00 | -93 | 118 |
Hot Tech Stocks of 2000
Our prediction in January 1999 applied the average 87% decline of the Hot Techs of thiry years ago to determine the extent of the decline in the Hot Tech Stocks of today. This estimate is optimistic -- at least all of the Hot Techs of 30 years ago had earnings.Profitable Internet companies will see 73% average declines while unprofitable Internet companies will either see their stock price fall to zero or they will be acquired by their brick-and-mortor competition.
The table shows selected Internet stocks purchased at the peak price and the decline as of the date below.
Last Update: November 27 2000
Symbol Name Paid Prev Cls Gain Earn/Shr ABTL AUTOBYTEL.COM 58 3 13/32 -$54.78 -94.45% -1.66 AMZN AMAZON COM 110.63 28 15/16 -$82.63 -74.69% -3.45 AOL AMERICA ONLINE 87.75 42.9 -$43.78 -49.89% 0.54 ATHM AT HOME CP A 99 7 29/32 -$91.69 -92.61% -4.80 BAMM BOOKS-A-MILLION 47 3 -$43.97 -93.55% 0.26 BVSN BROADVISION 72.375 30 13/16 -$42.06 -58.12% -0.35 CMGI CMGI INC 165 12 13/16 -$153.38 -92.95% -5.26 CNET CNET NETWORKS 79.75 21 -$57.88 -72.57% 3.19 DCLK DOUBLECLICK INC 176 14 1/8 -$161.19 -91.58% -0.81 EBAY EBAY INC 234 36 15/16 -$195.81 -83.68% 0.11 ELNK EARTHLINK INC 99.375 7 21/32 -$92.19 -92.77% -2.66 ETYS ETOYS INC 85 1 13/16 -$83.00 -97.65% -2.15 EWBX EARTHWEB INC 89 15 3/4 -$74.50 -83.71% -4.30 GEEK INTERNET AMER 61 1 1/8 -$60.00 -98.36% -1.75 GNET GO2NET INC 199 31 7/8 -$167.12 -83.98% -0.92 IVIL IVILLAGE INC 130 1 11/16 -$128.53 -98.87% -6.94 LCOS LYCOS INC 145.375 40 11/16 -$104.31 -71.75% 0.20 LTWO LEARN2.COM INC 10 1 1/4 -$8.88 -88.75% -0.32 MKTW MARKETWATCH.COM 130 4 1/2 -$125.25 -96.35% -5.80 ONEM ONEMAIN.COM INC 46.75 10 1/8 -$36.62 -78.34% -5.48 PRGY PRODIGY COMMS 50.625 3 -$47.69 -94.20% -2.51 RNWK REALNETWORKS 131.875 16 -$116.69 -88.48% -0.47 TGLO THEGLOBE.COM 48.5 15/32 -$48.06 -99.10% -2.85 TSCN TELESCAN INC 26.375 1 1/2 -$24.88 -94.31% 0.38 YHOO YAHOO INC 244 40 7/8 -$203.88 -83.56% 0.45 ZDZ ZIFF-DVS ZDNET 55.5 11 3/4 -$43.75 -78.83% -0.05
26 symbols Totals(USD): -$2,292.50 -85.48%
Nutty Valuations February 15, 2000
The "New Era" of valuations
- GoodYear Tire $3.732B - Union Carbide $7.337B - Sears $11.055B - Caterpillar $14.183B - International Paper $18.038B - Eastman Kodak $18.246B - JP Morgan $20.106B - Alcoa $27.068B AOL = $123.2B Bottom DOW 8 $119.805 B
THE UNFOLDING BEAR MARKET:THE BURSTING OF THE DOT-COM BUBBLE (7/26/2000)